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Economic: A Grim Start to the New Year? Stock Market's Fear Gauge Spikes Following Fed Policy; Donald Trump's Potential Tariffs Could Significantly Impact the U.S. Economy and Equities in 2025

 


The stock market closed out the final week of 2024 with mounting uncertainty, as investors weighed the potential implications of Donald Trump's prospective presidency on global markets in 2025. On Wednesday, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), commonly referred to as the market’s fear gauge, surged dramatically by 74%, climbing to 27.6. This sharp rise reflects growing investor apprehension and uncertainty about the economic and geopolitical landscape ahead.

Market Reaction
The stock market faced sharp declines in response to these developments. The S&P 500 fell by 3.03%, while the Nasdaq 100 dropped 3.74%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 1,103 points (-2.54%), marking one of its steepest declines since September 2022.

These widespread sell-offs highlight investors' increasing concerns about the economic outlook and potential policy shifts. Investor sentiment remains cautious, reflecting heightened uncertainty in the markets.

Impact of Trump's Proposed Tariffs
The prospect of Donald Trump's presidency is intensifying concerns within the financial community. His potential trade policies, including a proposed 10% across-the-board tariff on all trading partners and significantly higher tariffs on Chinese goods, could profoundly affect global markets and trade relationships.

Such measures raise alarms about increased costs for both consumers and businesses, potentially disrupting supply chains and dampening economic growth.

Fed Chair Powell's Remarks
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that the central bank is closely monitoring potential fiscal policy outcomes, including those under a possible new administration. Despite these uncertainties, Powell emphasized that the Fed remains focused on achieving its 2% inflation target and supporting a robust labor market.

Inflation Concerns
The Federal Reserve's updated economic projections have raised alarms among investors. The central bank now expects only two additional rate cuts in 2025, a reduction from the previously forecasted four. This adjustment has prompted a reassessment of interest rate expectations, driving Treasury yields sharply higher.

Additionally, the Fed has revised its inflation forecasts upward. Headline inflation for 2025 is now projected to reach 2.5%, compared to earlier estimates.

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